There is no doubt that the Maduro regime in Venezuela is not good for its own people and not good for American Petro giants.
Where my doubt comes in is the idea that Bolton, Abrams and drumpf have any good intent in kicking that particular hornets nest.
But Senator Rubio is so gung-ho to back their play that he is posting death porn of Muammar Gaddafi to posit what a lark intervention would be…
(trigger)
This after suggesting that intervention in Venezuela, twelve times the area, mountainous, jungle infused and bordering on Columbia, which has wrestled with guerrilla warfare for decade would be a cakewalk like taking down Noriega in Panama.
A more realistic assessment of what war in Venezuela would entail can be found here.
“If this happens, the United States would almost certainly get involved militarily. What would that look like?
- To envision this, we have to borrow from the U.S. performance in Iraq and Afghanistan. The early phases of a direct U.S. intervention would probably be marked by a “shock and awe” campaign of targeted bombardments, intended to force Maduro and his circle to leave power quickly.
- One hopes that this phase would be surgical, limited to military targets. One hopes, too, that U.S. forces would take better care this time not to destroy infrastructure on which the civilian population depends, and that it will be essential to rebuild quickly: the electrical grid, clean water, transportation, medical facilities.
- Still, it is hard to be surgical in a city of 3 million like Caracas. There will be collateral damage. U.S. bombs, missiles, and drones will kill civilians.
- If aerial bombardments don’t succeed in dislodging the regime, then expect a commitment of land forces. That could mean urban warfare and house-to-house fighting. This is the worst-case scenario, as it would mean being bogged down with far higher U.S. casualties than anticipated.
- A wild card here are the Venezuelan people themselves. About two-thirds to three-quarters of them oppose Maduro, but how many will welcome foreign occupiers? Will U.S. personnel be “greeted as liberators?” Will local leaders be able to overlook Donald Trump reviving U.S. gunboat diplomacy on a scale not seen in generations? And even if the Venezuelan people do welcome the foreign occupiers, can the chavistas’ irregular forces terrorize them from actively collaborating?”
But perhaps it will all go well. drumpf will get his military parade through Caracas and the Chavista guerrillas and Colombia drug lords will welcome our arrival, lay down their weapons and break into a rousing chorus of The Star Spangled Banner.
And perhaps MAGA ball-cap wearing condors will fly in formation out of Rubio’s pink ass.
Lacking a crystal ball all I can do today is worry and report Rubio’s grotesque tweet.
And I suggest you all do likewise.
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Cross-posted to PolitiZoom
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